Daily Market Brief — Wed, Oct 28, 2026

Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026 · WSJ, The Information, FT and market data through Tuesday's close and Wednesday morning

Article Takeaways

SK Hynix printed a record quarter and says memory is sold out to 2029. Q3 operating profit Won83.33tn ($62.5bn), up 38% q/q and 8.6% above consensus; revenue Won104.62tn, +32%.

• Operating margin 79.7%, almost level with Micron's 80.7%, on higher prices and more HBM.
• DRAM and HBM output sold out until 2029; long-term deals with 14 customers cover more than half of 2027–28 capacity. It expects shortages to last to 2030.
• The catch: net profit fell 57.7% q/q because Q2 had a one-off Kioxia gain. It also pulled the Solidigm US IPO last week.
• Glut hedge: new fabs get built early but tools go in stages, so expansion can be slowed.
• Bullish: Samsung, Micron, HBM equipment. Bearish: hyperscaler memory costs into 2029 (inference). (FT)

Anthropic's IPO is the funding test for the whole AI trade. It is seeking up to $100B, listing within weeks, with H1 revenue up 1,300% y/y.

• Its $63B chip deal runs through a bank-funded SPV: Broadcom/Google design, TSMC builds, the SPV leases chips to Anthropic. Banks only went ahead after Broadcom sweetened its guarantees and took higher rates.
• Equity supply is heavy: Alphabet raised nearly $85B, Meta plans nearly $100B (first $37.5B anchored by Nvidia's $3B, AMD and Broadcom). Big Tech bonds ~$250B this year, ~$400B next.
• Meta's long-term debt went from under $20B to over $80B in under three years. CoreWeave is down 35%+ in a month and its unsecured bonds fell sharply.
• Bearish read: a weak debut could stall OpenAI's 2027 IPO and squeeze levered neoclouds first (inference). (WSJ)

Anthropic's S-1 sizes its market as $40T of knowledge-worker output. No formal TAM; instead, the global value of knowledge work in 2025.

• That beats SpaceX's $28.5T TAM and nearly equals the $48.2T combined TAMs of seven big tech IPOs.
• The catch: labor value isn't addressable revenue, and Anthropic's revenue is in the billions (inference). (WSJ)

The S-1 sparked a relief rally in chips and memory. Nasdaq 100 +1.3% and SOX +3.6% Tuesday; Western Digital +7%, Seagate +3.7%, Micron and Intel +3%+.

• Drivers: ballooning H1 revenue, a $112bn cash pile, and Brent down 1.6%.
• The catch: no clear path to lab profits yet; markets are waiting on the Fed and the midterms. (FT)

OpenAI plans to buy Google TPUs, chipping at Nvidia's hold on its biggest customer. Terms unknown; a TPU job posting suggests an early stage.

• Context: Nvidia pledged >$100B of credit support for an all-Nvidia Ohio site for OpenAI, and says OpenAI committed to ~$600B of Nvidia servers through 2030.
• Oracle becomes the first major outside cloud to rent TPUs.
• The catch: OpenAI said last year it had no TPU plans, and Nvidia then cut a new deal. Positive for Google Cloud, Broadcom and Oracle; marginal negative for Nvidia pricing power (inference). (The Information)

AI data centers are driving the fastest big-bank business lending in a decade, but banks are passing the risk on. C&I loans at the 25 largest banks grew almost 10% y/y in Q3.

• Banks cap single names (Oracle cited); Wells Fargo has hard limits, Citizens hedges.
• So more data-center financing moves to bonds, and banks hedge with CDS and loan sales.
• Regionals lend to builders, not sponsors, so they feel a capex slowdown first (inference). Bank index ~+5% YTD vs ~13% for the S&P 500. (WSJ)

A $300B private-equity loan wall hits in 2028–29, and a third of it is software. ~$140B of junk loans mature in 2028 and ~$160B in 2029, vs a ~$60B average two years out.

• ~25% rated CCC+ or below, many from 2021 buyouts. Software is also the sector most exposed to AI disruption.
• Solera has ~$8B due, rated CCC+, trading at 77–93 cents. Clearlake's symplr refinancing needed continuation-fund equity and maturity extensions.
• BofA sees leveraged-loan defaults doubling to 4% next year; PE returns have fallen below 10% from ~15%.
• Read: lenders gain leverage over sponsors, but software-heavy books face markdowns (inference). (WSJ)

Goldman's IB co-head says rising capital costs are exposing weak spots in AI. Calls it repositioning, not a sentiment shift: bubbles within AI, not an AI bubble.

• Investors favor vertically integrated players (models, software, chips). Circular financing raises risk.
• Goldman leads SpaceX's GPU financing, Meta's offering and Anthropic's IPO this week. (The Information)

Onsemi is in talks to pay ~$1B for Ferric, a startup delivering power directly under AI chips. A deal could come within days, possibly with earnouts.

• Follows ADI's $1.5B Empower buy in May and Onsemi's $5.7B Synaptics deal this month.
• The catch: steep price for little revenue. AI power delivery is now an M&A theme (ON, ADI, MPWR, VICR) (inference). (The Information)

TPG is in talks to buy UK data-center group Ark for about $5bn. Ark runs 27 sites in the UK and Belgium and serves government via a Cabinet Office JV.

• Would be a top-five data-center deal this year; sector deals YTD $89.4bn, 50% above all of 2025.
• The catch: not guaranteed, and a proposed UK local-investment "covenant" adds regulatory risk. (FT)

China's state funds are buying to stop the AI-hardware slide. The CSI 300 is in a bear market, ~20% off its June peak; industrials −23% YTD; CATL −37%.

• Mainland investors sold HK$20bn of Hong Kong stocks in October, the most since July 2021.
• National-team ETF buying was likely the heaviest since April 2025, but fiscal spending fell and fixed-asset investment is −7.2% y/y.
• Read: a floor, not a rally; bad for HK IPO valuations (inference). (FT)

Jio rose 27% on debut after India's biggest IPO. Raised $3.2bn at a $108bn valuation (cut from $150bn), now >$130bn; bids exceeded $78bn.

• 530mn+ mobile subscribers; more than a third of Reliance's profit. Needs tariff hikes (~15% expected in March). (FT)

US–Russia talks float oil deals for US majors as part of Ukraine peace. Ideas include reviving Sakhalin-1 and Druzhba oil sales to Europe.

• The catch: nothing before a peace deal, Exxon says it has no plans to return, and the EU opposes relief. Low near-term odds; headline risk for oil (inference). (FT)

The Through-Line

AI demand evidence got stronger today: Hynix is sold out to 2029, H100 rents jumped 12.6%, and Anthropic's revenue is real. But money is getting more expensive, with the 10-year near 5%, so financing is shifting to SPVs, bonds and huge equity raises, and the risk is moving from banks and hyperscalers to bondholders, guarantors like Broadcom, and private-credit books (inference).

• 10-year 5.05% Oct 28, 2026

3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%

Jan ’26AprJulOct

Source: Federal Reserve Board (H.15), via FRED. Chart: Michael Wang.

Numbers Worth Remembering

• SK Hynix Q3 operating profit Won83.33tn ($62.5bn), +38% q/q; margin 79.7% vs Micron's 80.7%.
• H100 index $3.57/hr: +12.6% d/d, +14.4% w/w, +39% over one month; a 3-month high.
• Anthropic IPO up to $100B; H1 revenue +1,300% y/y; $112bn cash.
• $63B Anthropic chip financing via a Broadcom-guaranteed SPV.
• Meta long-term debt: under $20B to over $80B in under three years; Big Tech bonds ~$400B expected next year.
• C&I loans at the 25 largest US banks +~10% y/y in Q3, fastest in over a decade ex-Covid.
• PE loan wall: ~$140B due 2028, ~$160B due 2029 vs ~$60B average; ~1/3 software, ~25% CCC+ or worse.
• BofA: leveraged-loan defaults seen doubling to 4% next year.
• Data-center M&A YTD $89.4bn, +50% vs all of 2025.
• Mainland sold HK$20bn of Hong Kong stocks in October; CSI 300 ~−20% from June peak.
• Jio: $108bn IPO valuation, +27% debut, $78bn+ of bids.
• Onsemi ~$1B for Ferric; ADI paid $1.5B for Empower.

Top Takeaways

1. SK Hynix posted a record $62.5bn Q3 operating profit at a 79.7% margin and says DRAM and HBM are sold out to 2029, with long-term deals covering over half of 2027–28 capacity. That matters because contracted capacity turns a price cycle into multi-year visibility, which is why Korea's Kospi closed above 6,000 for the first time. (000660.KS +11.4% Wed)
2. The H100 rental index jumped 12.6% in a day to $3.57/hr, a 3-month high, up 39% over one month. Rental prices rising this fast mean new GPU supply isn't keeping up with demand, which supports neocloud pricing even as their bonds sell off (inference). (CRWV +7.94% Tue)
3. Broadcom is guaranteeing a $63B bank-funded SPV that buys chips and leases them to Anthropic, and it had to sweeten the guarantees before banks would lend. It locks in demand for Broadcom's custom chips but puts contingent credit risk on its balance sheet that depends on Anthropic's growth. (AVGO +~4% Tue)
4. OpenAI plans to buy Google TPUs, and Oracle becomes the first outside cloud to rent them. Nvidia's largest customer is building a second supplier, which gives OpenAI pricing leverage even though Nvidia says OpenAI committed to ~$600B of its servers through 2030 (inference). (GOOGL, Oct 27 move not found; NVDA +0.9% Tue)
5. Anthropic is seeking up to $100B in its IPO after H1 revenue rose 1,300% y/y and it disclosed $112bn of cash, which drove Tuesday's chip and memory rally. The listing is the gate for the next round of AI funding: a strong debut keeps capital flowing to Meta, OpenAI and the neoclouds, a weak one could stall OpenAI's 2027 IPO. (no public ticker)
6. C&I loans at the 25 largest US banks grew almost 10% y/y in Q3 on data-center build-outs, yet banks cap single names and hedge with CDS and loan sales. Banks keep the fees and loan growth while bond and private-credit buyers end up holding more AI construction risk, so bank stocks don't get the full upside. (KBW Nasdaq Bank index ~+5% YTD; WFC daily move not found)
7. About $300B of junk-rated PE loans mature in 2028–29, a third in software and a quarter rated CCC+ or worse, while BofA sees defaults doubling to 4%. Higher yields make refinancing expensive just as AI threatens software cash flows, so lenders like Ares and Apollo gain leverage over sponsors but face markdowns. (ARES, Oct 27 move not found)
8. Onsemi is in talks to buy Ferric for ~$1B, after agreeing to buy Synaptics for $5.7B this month, to move into chips that deliver power right under AI processors. Delivering power at the chip cuts energy losses compared with board-level parts, so analog makers are paying up for the tech to pivot from autos to data centers (inference). (ON, Oct 27 move not found; reports Nov 2)
9. TPG is in talks to buy Ark Data Centres from Elliott for ~$5bn, in a year when data-center M&A has already hit $89.4bn, 50% above all of 2025. Private capital keeps paying up for operating capacity, though UK rules requiring local investment could squeeze returns. (TPG, Oct 27 move not found)
10. China's national team stepped up ETF buying as the CSI 300 fell into a bear market and mainlanders pulled HK$20bn from Hong Kong in October. State buying sets a floor, but with fiscal spending falling and investment −7.2% y/y there's no domestic demand to drive a rally, which weighs on China AI hardware and HK IPOs. (CATL −37% YTD; CSI 300 −1.3% Tue)

Meaningful Percentage Moves

• H100 index +12.62% d/d, +14.42% w/w, +39.45% 1M to $3.57/hr: high. A breakout above the mid-October high; AI compute supply is tight.
• SK Hynix: DRAM/HBM capacity sold out to 2029; LTAs cover >50% of 2027–28 capacity: high. Strongest support yet for multi-year memory pricing (Micron, Samsung).
• TrendForce: CSP capex projected above $1.5T in 2027, AI server revenue +90%+ y/y: high. Supports the demand side of the H100 and HBM thesis.
• DDR5 16Gb eTT spot +3.15% w/w; DDR5 16Gb spot +0.77% w/w: low to moderate. Current-gen DRAM keeps drifting up.
• DDR5 RDIMM 32GB −0.92% w/w; DDR4 16Gb eTT −1.25% w/w: low. Server modules and legacy DRAM flat to soft; no new contract figures.
• 512Gb TLC wafer −1.28% w/w: low. NAND is flat.

Conflicts: SK Hynix was +9% in FT's report vs +11.4% at the close (CNBC); Samsung +8%+ vs +9.1%. Broadcom was +3.3% at midday and +4% in a later AP report. Brent depends on the contract: $113.88 front month vs $109.41 for December.

Market close (Tue) and today

S&P 500 7,722.60 (+0.6%), Nasdaq 26,477.81 (+1.18%), Dow 52,377.57 (+0.03%; Boeing ~−10% on a 737 delay), Russell 2000 2,818.87 (+1.16%). 10-year 4.993%, WTI $99.90 (−1.83%), Brent $113.88 (−1.67%), ~$115.57 Wednesday morning. Consumer confidence beat at 91.7 vs 81.0 expected. Today: FOMC decision 2:00 pm ET (hold at 3.75%–4.00% expected, >90% odds), Warsh at 2:30. GE Vernova before the open; Microsoft and Alphabet after the close. Thursday: GDP, PCE, ECB, Amazon.