Daily Market Brief — Mon, Oct 26, 2026

Monday, Oct 26, 2026 · Afternoon edition · WSJ, The Information, FT, prices through the close

Afternoon edition. The morning brief went out with FT only. All three inputs were re-collected after Monday's close, so this version covers WSJ, The Information, FT and fresh prices through the Monday close.

Article Takeaways

Anthropic's S-1 shows an AI lab that has started making operating profit, wrapped in a $650bn–$800bn compute bill and founder control. Listing on Nasdaq as ANT, targeted for the week of Nov 16. It aims to raise ~$100bn, which could make it the largest IPO ever, with talk of a $1.5T–$2T valuation.

• H1 revenue $16.3bn vs $1.2bn a year ago. Q2 alone was $11.6bn, with $974m of operating profit (8% margin). Compute cost per $1 of revenue fell from >$2.50 (Q1 2025) to <$0.50.
• The headline $80.7bn H1 net loss is mostly a fair-value charge on convertible notes. Excluding it, the loss was ~$8.4bn. Cash is $112bn.
• Compute commitments: ~$657bn over 7–10 years, $417bn noncancelable (The Information). Google $114.5bn, AWS $110bn, SpaceX $120.5bn (cancelable on 90 days' notice), Nscale $44.6bn, Microsoft $44.9bn, Lambda $41.3bn, AMD $20bn, plus $161bn of Broadcom TPU leases.
• The catch: co-founders hold 50.1% of votes and the Benefit Trust picks the board majority, so public holders get almost no control. Top 5 customers are ~25% of revenue, Q3 growth slowed to ~50% q/q, and staggered lock-ups let some insiders sell from day one.
• Bullish: AVGO/GOOGL TPU chain, AWS, AMD, neoclouds. Bearish: a huge new supply of AI equity, with lock-up overhang into early 2027 (inference). (WSJ, The Information, FT)

Meta will sell up to $95bn of stock to fund AI, and its chip suppliers may buy in. ~$35bn underwritten now (common plus preferred depositary shares), then $60bn at-the-market from Q1 2027 via new nonvoting Class C shares.

• Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom signalled interest in up to $5bn combined, at the same price as other buyers.
• Context: 2026 capex up to $145bn, $800bn+ of data-centre and energy commitments over a decade. Alphabet raised $90bn of equity in June.
• The catch: suppliers buying a customer's stock is vendor financing. The ATM programme is a standing overhang. META fell 1.9% Monday after −7% last Thursday. (The Information, FT)

SpaceX will lease $40bn of Nvidia GPUs through an Apollo vehicle, keeping the debt off its balance sheet. BlackRock, Goldman and KKR funds anchor it. Tranches carry ~5-year leases, starting H1 2027.

• Musk expects SpaceX to add 10 GW of compute next year. SpaceX also sells compute to labs, including Anthropic's $120.5bn contract.
• Same playbook: Broadcom set up a $63bn SPV debt deal (Blackstone, BofA, Citi, MS) to buy its own chips and lease them to Anthropic, with a residual-value guarantee.
• The catch: 5-year leases on GPUs that may age faster leave residual-value risk with private credit (inference). (The Information, FT)

Two chipmakers are a third of America's earnings boom. S&P 500 Q3 EPS is expected up ~30%. Nvidia and Micron alone contribute 34% of that, and the top 10 contribute about two-thirds.

• Without the top 10, the index still grows ~10%. Micron's last quarterly profit rose 1,078%. Nvidia is expected at +90%.
• The catch: index EPS now rides on memory and GPU pricing. A memory rollover would hit earnings disproportionately (inference). (WSJ)

Microsoft offered buyouts to ~60,000 staff, about 27% of its 223,000 headcount. US, UK, Canada and India, VP level and below. Xbox, Windows and Copilot are in; sales, security, data centres and some engineering are out.

• There's no extra incentive this time, so take-up should be well below the >30% of the earlier retirement offer. Tech norms are 3–5%.
• Why: FY capex is held at $175bn, plus $130bn of new leases in fiscal Q4. Free cash flow fell 23% to $19.6bn. Earnings are Wednesday. (WSJ, FT)

DoorDash is in advanced talks to buy Instacart for ~$17bn, a ~30% premium to its ~$13bn value before the report. A deal could be signed this week. Uber talks are no longer active.

• The catch: combining the #1 restaurant platform with the #1 grocery platform invites antitrust scrutiny (inference). (WSJ)

Brazil's real had its worst day since 1999 after Lula's surprise win. He won 51.8%–48.2%, and markets had priced a Bolsonaro win. The real fell 8% to R$5.41/$, the Bovespa fell 13.9% after an emergency halt, and financials fell 22%.

• The fiscal deficit is ~8% of GDP, debt ~83%, and the Selic 13.75%. Lula ran on costly pledges.
• The catch: a conservative Congress may limit slippage. Watch his finance-minister pick. (FT)

DWS will pay out only 10% of redemption requests at its €4.3bn flagship property fund for up to 12 months. NAV is down >10% YTD and leverage is near legal limits. Fund shares trade at about half of redemption value in Stuttgart.

• German open-ended property funds have seen ~€18bn of outflows since 2024. It's a liquidity-mismatch warning for semi-liquid private-asset vehicles (inference). (FT)

The Through-Line

AI's bill is moving off income statements and onto investors. Anthropic is listing to raise ~$100bn against $650bn+ of compute contracts. Meta is selling up to $95bn of stock to its own suppliers and the market. SpaceX and Broadcom are pushing GPUs into off-balance-sheet lease vehicles, and Microsoft is cutting staff to protect free cash flow. Demand for chips and compute is intact, as the H100 index and Q3 earnings show, but the funding is getting more creative and more circular (inference).

Numbers Worth Remembering

• Anthropic H1 revenue $16.3bn (vs $1.2bn); Q2 $11.6bn with an 8% operating margin.
• Anthropic compute per $1 of revenue: >$2.50 (Q1 2025) → <$0.50 (Q2 2026).
• Anthropic compute commitments ~$657bn ($417bn noncancelable), up to ~$806bn with TPU leases.
• Anthropic IPO: ~$100bn raise, $1.5T–$2T valuation talk, Nasdaq "ANT", week of Nov 16.
• Meta stock sale up to $95bn; suppliers up to $5bn; 2026 capex up to $145bn.
• SpaceX GPU leases $40bn via Apollo; Broadcom SPV $63bn for Anthropic chips.
• Nvidia + Micron = 34% of S&P 500 Q3 EPS growth (~30% total).
• Microsoft: 60,000 eligible for buyouts; FCF −23% to $19.6bn; capex $175bn.
• Brazil: real −8% (worst since 1999), Bovespa −13.9%.
• H100 index $3.17/hr, +12.8% w/w.

Top Takeaways

1. Anthropic's S-1 shows Q2 revenue of $11.6bn and a $974m operating profit, with compute falling below 50 cents per dollar of revenue. That undercuts the "AI labs burn cash forever" bear case and sets a public benchmark for AI lab valuations, because revenue is now growing much faster than the compute needed to serve it. (no public ticker yet; to list as ANT)
2. Anthropic has signed up to ~$806bn of compute, including $161bn of Google TPU leases through Broadcom and $114.5bn with Google Cloud. Most of it is noncancelable, so Anthropic's growth turns into years of locked-in backlog for the TPU chain. (AVGO ~+3% intraday, per Reuters; GOOGL move not found)
3. The $120.5bn SpaceX compute contract is the softest piece of Anthropic's backlog: either side can exit on 90 days' notice from early next year. It is big headline revenue for SpaceX, but it can disappear within a quarter, so it deserves a lower value than the noncancelable hyperscaler deals (inference). (SpaceX ticker not stated)
4. Meta plans to raise up to $95bn of equity, with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom bidding for up to $5bn. Capex of up to $145bn now outruns free cash flow, so shareholders fund it through dilution and suppliers recycle cash into their own customer. (META −1.9%)
5. SpaceX agreed to lease $40bn of Nvidia GPUs from an Apollo vehicle funded by BlackRock, Goldman and KKR money. Private credit is taking the hardware off the operator's books, which keeps Nvidia orders flowing but leaves lenders holding residual-value risk on fast-ageing chips (inference). (NVDA +2.39%; APO move not found)
6. Nvidia and Micron contribute 34% of the S&P 500's ~30% Q3 earnings growth. Index profits now depend on GPU and memory pricing staying high, so a memory-price rollover would hit the whole index, not just chip stocks (inference). (NVDA +2.39%; MU move not found)
7. Microsoft offered voluntary exits to ~60,000 of 223,000 staff two days before earnings, while holding capex at $175bn after free cash flow fell 23%. Cutting opex is how hyperscalers offset rising AI depreciation without cutting capex. (MSFT +1.54%)
8. DoorDash is in advanced talks to buy Instacart at ~$17bn, ~30% above its pre-report value, to add grocery to its delivery network as Walmart and Amazon press in. Instacart holders get a premium, while DoorDash pays up and takes on antitrust risk. (CART +7.87%, DASH −6.10%)
9. Lula's surprise re-election sent the real down 8% and the Bovespa down 13.9%, because markets had priced a fiscally tighter Bolsonaro win against an 8%-of-GDP deficit. Brazil-exposed banks and fintechs took the biggest hit. (NU −17%, XP −48%)
10. DWS capped payouts at 10% of redemption requests for its €4.3bn property fund as NAV fell >10% and leverage neared legal limits. Semi-liquid funds holding illiquid property can't meet withdrawals without forced sales, which pressures European commercial property values. (DWS move not found)

Meaningful Percentage Moves

• H100 index $3.17/hr, +12.8% w/w (+0.6% d/d; 1M +27%): high. It sits just under the mid-October high. GPU rental demand is still tight even as AI funding gets more creative.
• DDR5 16Gb spot $61.33, +1.2% w/w; DDR5 eTT +3.2% w/w: low. DDR5 is drifting higher, with no new contract figures (TrendForce still says AI servers sustain Q4 contract increases).
• DDR4 16Gb spot −0.9% w/w; DDR4 eTT −2.0% w/w: low. Legacy DRAM is softening at the margin.
• DDR5 RDIMM 32GB $2,165, −0.9% vs the prior weekly print: low. Server module pricing is flat to slightly down.
• 512Gb TLC wafer −1.3% w/w: low. NAND is flat.
• Anthropic compute at 48% of revenue (from 72% in Q1, 251% a year ago): high. It's the clearest sign yet that inference unit economics can work at scale.

Conflicts: Anthropic's compute commitments are >$475bn, mostly noncancelable (WSJ); ~$657bn including $417bn noncancelable (The Information); and >$800bn including TPU leases (FT). Microsoft's earlier retirement offer went to ~8,600 people in April (WSJ) or 8,750 in July (FT). The H100 index read $3.03 in this morning's brief vs $3.17 at the afternoon read.

Market close (Mon)

S&P 500 7,676.77 (+0.7%), Nasdaq 26,169.38 (+0.82%), Dow 52,361.58 (+0.28%), Russell 2000 +0.43%. The 10-year is ~4.98%, Brent $115.81 (−0.8%) and WTI $101.57 (−1.7%). AI names led after the S-1. This week: FOMC Wednesday (~10% hike odds, ~85% for December), Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday, and GDP, PCE and Amazon come Thursday.